Recently my brother-in-law, who has both a pilot's license and a son who is an airline pilot, was joking about the secret chemicals being spread by jet pilots in contrails, a conspiracy theory that has been around since contrails appeared. I started thinking through the logistics of what such a plot would require and, thanks to the internet, I found some statistics to go with the logistics. First, plagiarism--a con(densation)trail is defined as a
visible condensation of water droplets or ice crystals from the
atmosphere, sometimes occurring in the wake of an aircraft, rocket, or missile. Not every aircraft can form contrails, only jets, and only under certain conditions. They only occur between altitudes of 25-40,000 feet and only (there are no good synonyms for only) then with the right combination of low vapor and low temperature. Our breath does the same thing on a cold day--chemical free (unless you are a smoker or a toker).
Now in order for the chemtrail conspiracy to work there would need to be a way to get the chemicals into the jet, a way to disperse the chemicals in flight and, the most difficult to manage, a way to silence all those involved. Now for the statistics for the U.S:
734,911 pilots including civilians and military
160,860 private pilots, 103,879 commercial pilots, 43,300 military pilots
6882 commercial aircraft, 13,300 military aircraft (many based overseas)
5271 public airports
3000 fixed base operators (gas stations for airplanes) distributing fuel from:
Shell, BP, Total, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, among others
306,300 aircraft mechanics
5 major manufacturers of civil aircraft
12 aircraft and engine specific training schools at 5 separate locations
Of course, the conspiracists would say that since the world wide web is controlled by the same secret forces spreading the contrail chemicals, internet data is not reliable. But having married into the aircraft world I can tell you:
Pilots are mostly mavericks.
Mechanics cannot be muzzled.
Everything in and on an aircraft will break.
So here are some of the logistical problems:
- If the chemicals were in the jet fuel, thousands of fuel production employees would need to be sworn to or coerced into secrecy.
- If the chemicals were procured from a secret supplier to be injected during flight, the pilots who flew the jet would have to be trained how to use it and the mechanics who worked on it would have to be trained how to fix it.
- Therefore, the instructors who teach pilots and mechanics would have to be in on the secret. The injector would also have to be in the schematics because neither pilots nor mechanics are allowed to just wing it with airplane operation. Realistically, who would be willing to keep the secret knowing they were being dosed with the same chemicals? The sky is a pretty hard thing to avoid.
- The military has greater ability to protect secrets, but that would cover a much smaller area than commercial aircraft and they buy their fuel where everyone else does. Also, military planes can detect when they are leaving contrails so the pilot can change altitude to eliminate them, because it is not a good idea on a military operation to leave a trail for your enemies to find you.
- Civilian employees would have no reason to keep silent after leaving their jobs, and lots of fame and financial reasons to expose the secret. Anyone who thinks thousands of people are capable of keeping secrets for decades has never tried to plan a surprise party.
Logistically, a conspiracy dependent on the collaboration of thousands of people will never get off the ground. But what I find interesting is that some of the supposed effects of the chemtrails are the same ones now attributed to the Covid vaccine--sterility, mind control, shortened life span. The upside is, conspiracies are apparently made of recyclable materials.
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